RJC Exit Poll Shows MAJOR Win for Trump Among Jewish Voters
The RJC worked with leading pollsters at Basswood Research and McLaughlin & Associates to conduct a national exit poll of 600 registered general election voters who describe themselves as Jewish. The poll shows that President Donald Trump won 30.5% of the Jewish vote this year, up 6.5 points from his 24% share of the Jewish vote in 2016. It is the highest percentage for any Republican presidential candidate since 1988.
Linked below are an analysis of the methodology and findings of the exit poll by the pollsters who conducted it; the top line of the poll; and the crosstabs of the poll.
Here are the highlights:
- President Trump received 30.5% of the Jewish vote nationally. That is the highest percentage for any Republican presidential candidate since 1988.
- Jewish voters were critical to the Trump victory in Florida.
- Presidential voting was highly polarized based on political party and religious affiliation.
- Jewish voters whose top priority was Israel and foreign policy overwhelmingly voted for Trump.
OF NOTE: In Florida, where the RJC invested over $5 million targeting Jewish voters, and in which we had the most sophisticated outreach ever undertaken in the Jewish community, the New York Times/AP poll [PDF here] shows that the Jewish vote outperformed the national numbers, with 43% of the Jewish vote going to President Trump, an historic record. There is no doubt that in this election, when Donald Trump won in the key battleground state of Florida by fewer than three points, the Jewish vote was critical to his victory.
Methodology of the RJC exit poll of Jewish voters:
On behalf of the Republican Jewish Coalition, from October 28 through Election Night on November 3, Basswood Research and McLaughlin & Associates conducted a nationwide survey of registered general election voters who describe themselves as Jewish. All survey respondents had either voted early or voted on Election Day. The survey was conducted by live professional interviewers by telephone. The sample size was 600, with a margin of error of +/- 4%, at a 95% confidence interval. Interviews were geographically distributed to reflect the actual Jewish voting population in the country.
Demographics of the RJC exit poll of Jewish voters:
Survey respondents self-identified as 19% Republicans, 55% Democrats, and 25% Independents. It included 68% who voted either in person or by mail before Election Day, and 32% who voted on Election Day. Eighty-three percent of respondents said they had made up their mind more than one month ago.
Links:
RJC National Jewish Voter Exit Poll Analysis
RJC National Jewish Voter Exit Poll Topline
RJC National Jewish Voter Exit Poll Crosstabs
NYT/AP Florida poll [PDF here]