An Inside Look at the RJC Exit Polls

The RJC conducted phone surveys among Jewish voters on election night, after the polls had closed, to get a feel for how the Jewish community voted this year and whether Israel was an important issue for Jewish voters.

We did three surveys: a 1000-person sample national poll of Jewish voters; a 600-person sample poll of Jewish voters in Florida; and a 600-person sample poll of Jewish voters in Ohio. The full summary and cross tab data from all three polls can be found at the links at the end of this article.

The Obama-Romney race in the Jewish community
In the national RJC poll, which had a margin of error of +/- 3%, we found that 31.6% of Jewish voters chose Mitt Romney and 60.8% chose Barack Obama. (Of the remainder, 1.4% chose a third party candidate and 6.2 % refused to say how they voted.) This number for Jewish support of Romney is in keeping with national media exit polls, which showed Romney getting about 31% of the Jewish vote and Obama getting 69%, a 9-point drop from the 78% of the Jewish vote that Obama received in 2008.

That 32% support for Romney represents a 10-point gain, or a nearly 50% increase in Jewish support, from the 22% that John McCain received in 2008.

An historical view
RJC Executive Director Matt Brooks said, "Republicans significantly moved the needle in the Jewish community, in a result that was consistent with what we've been saying for some time about the GOP making inroads in the Jewish community. That trend continues to grow. In fact, the 10-point gain this year is the largest such gain for Republicans since 1972."

Brooks also noted that the historical average of Jewish support for Republican presidential candidates since 1920 has been 23.5% and Romney did considerably better than that benchmark.

Jews and other groups
In a conference call with journalists to discuss the RJC poll results, former White House Press Secretary and current CNN contributor Ari Fleischer made the following points:

• The Republicans saw a decline among other communities, such as Latin voters and younger voters, which means the rise in Jewish support for the GOP presidential candidate in key swing states helped keep the GOP competitive in a tough race.


• The RJC poll results show a legitimate expression of buyer's remorse on the part of Jewish voters. Romney won a higher percentage of the Jewish vote, against a sitting President, than George W. Bush, an acknowledged friend of Israel, won in 2004. (Romney won 32% this year, Bush won 24% in 2004.)


• President Obama carried the election, but he lost about 3 points overall compared to his popular vote tally in 2008, and he lost a few points each among Blacks and young voters, while losing 9 points among Jewish voters.

Role of Israel in voter decisions
Another very noteworthy point from the RJC polls: Israel was an important element in Jewish voter choices this year. Our survey shows that 76.5% of respondents said that Israel was "somewhat important" or "very important" in determining their vote.

This confirmed the RJC's decision to make Israel, along with the economy, a focal point of our outreach efforts. It played a prominent, but not exclusive, role in our TV ads and mailers.

Looking ahead
While we are disappointed by the election results, we are encouraged by the rise in Jewish support for the GOP.

The 2012 election marks another data point in the continuing trend of greater Jewish support for the GOP over time. The RJC will continue to educate our community and to advocate in the Jewish community for Republican ideas and policies. We see the rising numbers of Jewish support for Republicans as an example to other Republican constituencies of what is possible with hard work and a meaningful message. If the GOP makes similar gains among Black, Latino, and young voters in future years, Republicans will have strong electoral victories to celebrate.

RJC Exit Poll Results (PDF files)

National survey:    Summary    Cross tabs

Florida survey:       Summary    Cross tabs

Ohio survey:            Summary    Cross tabs

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RJC Releases Results of Jewish Exit Polling

GOP Gains 10pts among Jewish Voters since 2008

Washington, D.C. (November 7, 2012) -- The Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC) today released one of the largest and most comprehensive series of exit polls ever taken in the Jewish community.

The survey, a national sample of 1000 Jewish voters, as well as a 600-person sample of Jewish voters in Ohio and a 600-person sample of Florida Jewish voters, shows Jewish support for the President dropped from 78% in 2008 to 69% last night. See the poll results at the links below.
Matt Brooks, the executive director of the RJC said, "The results demonstrate that President Barack Obama and the Democrats saw a significant erosion of support from 2008, while Republicans continued their trend of the last several decades of making inroads in the Jewish community."
The Republican share of the Jewish vote jumped nationally from 22 percent to 32 percent -- an increase of almost 50 percent -- and is part of a trend in which Republicans have gained market share among Jewish voters in five of the last six national elections. The ten-point gain is the largest gain since 1972.

The Democrats' loss of support among Jewish voters indicates continued unease in the Jewish community with the President's handling of U.S.-Israel relations. The President dropped three points with all voters versus ten points with Jewish voters.

"The RJC is encouraged by the gains we made in 2012 and by the continuing movement in the Jewish community toward the GOP. Despite the discouraging election results, we're pleased by the gains we have made in the Jewish community," said Matt Brooks.


RJC Exit Poll Results (PDF files)

National survey:    Summary    Cross tabs

Florida survey:       Summary    Cross tabs

Ohio survey:            Summary    Cross tabs

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RJC Congratulates President Obama

Exit Polls Show Erosion of Jewish Support for Obama

GOP makes gains in 5 out of last 6 national elections

Washington, D.C. (November 7, 2012) -- Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC) Executive Director Matt Brooks issued the following statement today:

The Republican Jewish Coalition congratulates President Barack Obama. There are challenging times ahead for America's leaders, who must address the stagnant economy, the need to create more jobs, and the threat of a nuclear Iran. All of us must come together to craft real solutions to the very serious problems our country faces today.

One clear take-away from the outcome of this election is that the Jewish community spoke loudly and clearly regarding their concerns about the policies of the Obama administration.

Early exit polls results indicate a significant erosion of support for the President from 78 percent of the Jewish vote in 2008 to 69 percent in 2012. The trend in the Jewish community is unmistakeable. In five of the last six national elections, Republicans have increased their support among Jewish voters and they continue to make inroads in the Jewish community. Later today, the Republican Jewish Coalition will release a series of polls that highlight the trends in Jewish voting.

The RJC, the national voice of the growing Jewish Republican movement since 1985, is encouraged by the gains we made in 2012 and by the continuing movement in the Jewish community toward the GOP. We will continue to educate and advocate in our community for the principles and policies we believe will bring the greatest security and prosperity to all Americans.
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Time to Stop Digging and Start Building

Thursday, November 1, 2012
By: Matthew Brooks, RJC Executive Director

As Will Rogers said, “When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging!" In the last four years, the Obama administration has dug our country deeper and deeper into several painful and dangerous holes. It's time to stop digging and find better solutions.

Pres. Obama's economic policies have eroded the earning power of the middle class and mired us in the slowest-growing post-recession economy in decades. A wave of new taxes will hit working families in January. Billions of taxpayer dollars were wasted on a useless "stimulus" and "green" companies that went bankrupt. To date, Pres. Obama has added nearly $6 trillion to the national debt since taking office.

Meanwhile, unemployment stood above 8 percent for 43 straight months during Pres. Obama's tenure. Companies aren't hiring – in large part because of the uncertainty and poor prospects created by heavy-handed government regulations and a chaotic tax environment.

Mitt Romney has a better solution. By lowering tax rates across the board, while eliminating deductions and loopholes for high-end earners, we can broaden the tax base and bring in more revenue without raising taxes on the middle class. Responsible bipartisan efforts to cut non-security spending and reform the tax code, along with opening up more energy resources on this continent, will spur economic growth and cut the deficit. Lower corporate tax rates and more sensible regulations will make it possible for new businesses to start and for established businesses to grow.

Another hole is being dug by the rising costs of health care and the looming bankruptcy of Medicare and Social Security. Obamacare is already adding to the cost of health care for families and many employers have said they may have to drop their employee insurance plans under its restrictions. We will have to slash entitlement benefits and raise taxes to punishing levels if we don't get a handle on how Medicare and Social Security are structured.

The answer to these problems lies in allowing increased competition to bring down costs, while providing a secure safety net for those in need. Mitt Romney wants to repeal and replace Obamacare with a free-market system that protects people with preexisting conditions and the poor. His plan for Medicare reform shields everyone age 55 and older from any changes to the system and will keep traditional Medicare available for those younger workers who choose it. That will strengthen Medicare and offer the same benefits at lower cost to today's younger workers when they reach retirement age.

In foreign policy, Pres. Obama has pursued a naïve and dangerous policy that has given our enemies new openings to harm us, as in Benghazi, Libya. Pres. Obama's mixed messages and inaction during the Arab Spring have allowed Islamist forces to gain ground in several countries. He was silent during the 2010 freedom demonstrations in Iran and his response to the civil war in Syria has not advanced freedom, peace, or U.S. interests in the region.

Mitt Romney proposes a principled policy that puts America's national interests first and that projects American diplomatic, economic, and if absolutely necessary, military strength to protect those interests. Romney understands that we must stand with our allies and continue the fight against the radical Islamists who threaten our security and our democratic values.

The U.S.-Israel alliance has been badly hurt by the antipathy Pres. Obama has shown to Israel and her leaders. The military cooperation mandated by our pro-Israel Congress is strong, but the level of trust and cooperation between the two governments is low. Pres. Obama's made the "1967 borders" and Israeli construction freezes starting points for negotiations, which reinforced Palestinian intransigence and made peace between Israel and the Palestinians even more elusive.

Mitt Romney will stand with Israel, knowing that Israel is our best ally and an important partner with the U.S., and understanding that strong strategic, economic, and moral ties bind the two countries.

One of the most dangerous threats to American national security today is the possibility of a nuclear Iran. Congress supported sanctions on Iran (sometimes over the President's objection) but the diplomatic effort to support those sanctions has been weak and ineffectual. That is why Russia and China have routinely stymied efforts to create a truly effective international sanctions regime that might deter the Iranians. A nuclear Iran would be an existential threat to Israel, a destabilizing force in the Middle East, and a clear threat to America's interests and those of our European and Asian allies. The President's policies have given Iran almost four years to continue enriching uranium; they now approach the quantity and quality needed to create nuclear weapons.

Mitt Romney is committed to stopping Iran from acquiring the capability to build nuclear weapons. Our national security, and the security of our most important allies around the globe, depends on a strong U.S. policy toward Iran.

The American people face a significant choice in just a few days' time: a choice between a government-run, top-down economy and a free-market, opportunity economy; a choice between the weakness that invites attacks and the strength to keep our country secure; and a choice between leaving our children a country that we have built and enriched with freedom and ingenuity, or leaving them a country shackled in debt and diminished in scope. It's not too late to stop digging holes and start building our country again.
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Former Chair of Democrats Abroad in Israel Supports Romney: First time she has voted for a Republican

Washington, D.C. (October 31, 2012) -- The Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC) today launched the final ad in its "My Buyer's Remorse" campaign, featuring Bryna Franklin of Jerusalem, a lifelong Democrat and former chair of Democrats Abroad Israel. She voted for a Republican for President for the first time in her 80 years when she voted this year for Mitt Romney.

Bryna, a delegate to the 1992 Democratic National Convention and who served for years as vice chair of the Franklin County Democratic Central Committee in Missouri, explained her decision as stemming from a deep disappointment in President Obama on a range of issues.

Because of the sustained high unemployment rates, the loss of property value and the high foreclosure rates, and the fact that a large part of every dollar our government spends is borrowed from China, Bryna thinks the President's record on the economy is dismal.

She believes that President Obama's foreign policy actions have weakened America and undermined our relationships with our allies. In particular, she thinks that the President's hostility to Israel does immense harm to both Israel and the U.S.

RJC Executive Director Matt Brooks said, "Bryna has been an active and committed Democrat her whole life. But this year, like many other Jewish Democrats, she is calling on her fellow Jews across America to support Mitt Romney."

The ad is part of the RJC's $6.5 million effort to reach out to Jewish voters in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. It is running on broadcast and cable television as a 30-second spot. A longer web version is also available.

See the TV ad here.

See the web ad here.
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RJC on Romney's Strong Showing in Third Presidential Debate

Washington, D.C. (October 23, 2012) -- Republican Jewish Coalition Executive Director Matt Brooks commented on the third and final presidential debate of 2012:

"Gov. Mitt Romney made a very strong showing in the final debate, demonstrating his knowledge of foreign policy issues and his understanding of the nature of our allies and foes on the global stage. Romney understands how to protect American interests abroad. He will stand with Israel - not behind her, but beside her - with no "daylight" in between. He will shape American foreign policy to help nations like Syria and Pakistan resist Islamist extremism and move out of turmoil toward greater freedom and opportunity.

"Romney made it clear that in order for the U.S. to fulfill its role in the world, we must first be strong - economically, militarily, and diplomatically. The President's policies over the last four years have weakened us. Romney's plans to grow the economy and get people back to work will strengthen America at home and in the eyes of the world.

“Over the three presidential debates, Romney offered a competent, knowledgeable, and thoughtful take on the challenges that face us at home and abroad, and a clear policy agenda for turning us away from the failures of the last four years and making America strong, safe, and prosperous again.”
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RJC: Second Debate Highlights Clear Choice Before Voters

Washington, D.C. (October 17, 2012) -- Republican Jewish Coalition Executive Director Matt Brooks commented on the second presidential debate last night:

"Last night's debate highlighted the choice facing voters this year. With specific facts and examples, Gov. Romney demonstrated that Pres. Obama's broken promises, inaction, and failed policies have 'buried' the middle class. Gov. Romney put forward his plans for sound, principled policies that will protect the middle class, encourage job creation, increase American access to our continent's rich energy resources, and grow the economy.

"Gov. Romney also reminded voters of Pres. Obama's failed foreign policies, which include the administration's response to the attack on our consulate in Benghazi and the distance the President has put between the U.S. and Israel. Romney outlined his plans for strong U.S. policies toward countries that threaten American security and economic strength, including Syria, Iran, and China.

"Pres. Obama could not defend his record, because in four years he has not accomplished what he promised and what America needs: more jobs, economic growth, and security. Gov. Romney has the experience and know-how to bring those things back and make America great again."
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RJC Mourns Passing of Arlen Specter

Washington, D.C. (October 14, 2012) -- The Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC) mourns the passing of U.S. Senator Arlen Specter, who dedicated his life as a public servant to the people of Pennsylvania and the United States.

RJC National Chairman David Flaum said, “Arlen Specter was a devoted public servant with a great passion for justice. He was a staunch supporter of Israel in the U.S. Senate and during his tenure led efforts to expand and enhance the U.S.-Israel relationship. He was also a leading advocate for freedom for Soviet Jewry.

“May his family be comforted among the mourners of Zion and Jerusalem.”
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Home Depot Founder Bernie Marcus Featured in New RJC TV Ad

Washington, D.C. (October 5, 2012) -- The Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC) has released the next in its series of television ads. The new ad features a conversation with Home Depot founder Bernie Marcus.

Bernie Marcus is one of the country's great success stories, the son of immigrants who became a major leader and philanthropist in the Jewish community, and a supporter of programs and institutions, from medical services and research to the Georgia Aquarium, that enhance the lives of children and families across the United States.

In the RJC ad, Bernie has an important message for the Jewish community and for the country. Bernie shares his concerns for our nation and how frightened he is by what Pres. Obama's policies mean for America, especially for our children and future generations. In particular, the lack of job creation and rising home foreclosures are limiting the American dream for millions of families.

As someone who has taken Home Depot from one store to one of the largest companies in the world, and as someone who has hired millions of people over many years in business, Bernie is in a unique position to know which policies can bring about economic growth and prosperity and how badly Pres. Obama's policies are hurting us.

The 60-second ad, part of the RJC's $6.5 million campaign, is airing on broadcast and cable television in Florida, Ohio, Nevada and Pennsylvania. A longer, 3-minute web version can be seen on the RJC web site and on YouTube.

Click here or on the image below to see the TV ad:

See more RJC television ads here and here.
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RJC: Americans Saw the Real Romney Last Night

Washington, D.C. (October 4, 2012) -- The Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC) responded today to the first presidential debate of 2012. RJC Executive Director Matt Brooks said:

“Mitt Romney took control of the first debate and won it handily on both substance and style.

“Last night Americans saw the real Mitt Romney - not the caricature of the attack ads and biased media reports. They saw Romney in command of the facts, secure in his principles, and demonstrating the leadership and competence that have been missing in the White House for nearly four years.

“Romney made his case effectively on taxes, jobs, protecting the middle class, and health care. But he also gave voice to the enduring values of America, showed how far we have strayed from them under the Obama administration, and pledged to turn America back onto the path of economic growth and opportunity for all."
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