No one promised Senate Republicans an easy midterm election. Midterms tend to be tough for second-term Presidents – Bush’s GOP lost six Senate seats in 2006, while Obama’s Democrats lost nine in 2014.

But while any result short of a five-seat net loss is a GOP overperformance by history’s yardstick, it won’t be anything but a bitter defeat if Chuck Schumer takes over the Senate. To prevent that, the GOP must limit Democrats' total gain to no more than three seats.

The terrain is distinctly advantageous for Republicans. The GOP heads into November holding 22 of the 35 seats on the ballot. Moreover, President Trump carried 20 of the states hosting the races by five percent or more each time he was on the ballot.

The only purple or blue states on the Senate battlefield this year are Maine and Michigan – where RJC has had a lot to say in support of Senator Susan Collins and former Rep. Mike Rogers in their tight contests against radical opponents Troy Jackson and Abdul El-Sayed.

In Michigan, Mike Rogers faces the most antisemitic candidate in America, who was completely silent on the three-year anniversary of the October 7th massacre, and shamefully equivocated when asked if Iran is a bigger threat to the US than Israel. As we know, this isn’t the first time El-Sayed has displayed disqualifying moral cowardice. After a Hezbollah-inspired terrorist drove his car full of explosives into a Michigan synagogue with 140 Jewish schoolchildren inside, El-Sayed made excuses for the terrorist, saying "hurt people hurt people."

That’s why the RJC Victory Fund is going all in on Michigan, launching a $2 million dollar ad campaign featuring lifelong Jewish Democrats who are refusing to support El-Sayed. This is in addition to our robust direct mail, texting, door-to-door canvassing, GOTV efforts, and programming events to ensure that Mike Rogers is elected the next U.S. Senator from the Wolverine State.

The most overlooked race may be in my home state of Minnesota, where the RealClearPolitics average has Democrat Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leading Republican Michele Tafoya by just 2.2 points.

Flanagan’s radical record speaks for itself: her campaign libelously smears Israel’s war against Hamas as a "genocide," she cheered on the effort to strip $3.3 billion in military aid from the Jewish state, and as Tim Walz’s second-in-command since 2019, Flanagan presided alongside him while the state lost upwards of $250 million in the Feeding Our Future scheme and a Medicaid fraud scandal that federal prosecutors estimate could reach $9 billion. This is the same fraud that drove Tim Walz from his own reelection race — yet Flanagan now insists that it "was not my role." That’s not leadership, that’s truancy. Michele Tafoya has made this a real race in the closing weeks in the North Star State.

Even assuming Democrats hold the thirteen seats they currently control and flip Maine (a tall task, as Susan Collins is no stranger to competitive campaigns) – plus North Carolina, where the Democrat is favored – to wrest a Senate majority they’ll need to flip at least two more from a target list that includes Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.

As of this writing, control of the U.S. Senate for the last two years of the Trump presidency is close to a 50-50 betting proposition and it promises to be suspenseful between now and November 3rd.

We can’t let dire predictions in the mainstream media about GOP chances succeed in suppressing voter participation, or we’ll come up short in this critical moment.

Here’s why we can’t lose sight of the stakes:

For Jewish voters, it matters a great deal whether pro-America, pro-Israel allies of our community like Dan Sullivan (AK), Ashley Hinson (IA), and Jon Husted (OH) win, or lose to J Street-endorsed Democrats.

It matters a great deal whether Darline Graham is elected to fill the South Carolina Senate seat of our dear friend Sen. Lindsey Graham, of blessed memory, or that seat goes to a radical Democrat who will join the Bernie Sanders-led anti-Israel chorus.

Under Chuck Schumer’s leadership, legislation to fight antisemitism languished. Scrutiny of antisemitism in higher education was non-existent. America’s borders were opened. It matters a great deal if the party setting the Senate’s agenda is the one known for indifference, or worse, to Jewish community concerns.

Thanks for all you’re doing in this season of patriotic activism to support GOP Senate control! Click any candidate's name above to support their campaign — every dollar and every vote counts!

Senator Norm Coleman
RJC National Chairman