A Closer Look at Races in PVI EVEN House Districts

The estimable election forecasters at the Cook Political Report devised the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as a way to measure the two major political parties’ relative strength in a given congressional district (or state). If a district’s PVI rating is R+2, it means the Republican presidential candidate performed two percentage points better there than he did in the nation as a whole. If the presidential candidates’ share of district votes is within half a percent of the nation-wide share, the district is rated PVI EVEN.

In such an evenly divided country, any incumbent defending a seat in a PVI EVEN district knows that, for the rest of the decade, they can expect to face stiff challenges in their reelection races. At RJC, we have always supported these proven champions on the political front-lines and we welcome the opportunity to do so again.

• In 2020, with RJC’s support, Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar pulled off the biggest upset of the election cycle, beating a Democrat incumbent in Florida's 27th district, a Miami-area district Hillary Clinton had won by 16 percent. During her freshman term, Salazar has emerged as a leader on the Foreign Affairs committee, supporting a strong posture towards China, backing anti-BDS legislation and introducing a resolution commemorating the 30th anniversary of the attack on the Israeli Embassy in Bueno Aires.

Democratic State Senator Annette Taddeo has raised enough money to finance a barrage of negative attacks against Salazar and the race has tightened in recent weeks. Last week, the Cook Report shifted FL-27 from "Likely R" to the more competitive "Lean R."

• Nebraska’s 2nd district, based in Omaha, gave Joe Biden an electoral vote in 2020, even as Republican incumbent Rep. Don Bacon easily defeated his Democratic challenger. Bacon has proven an effective campaigner in a series of tough races starting when he took out a Democratic incumbent in 2016. But the challenge Bacon faces this year from state legislator Tony Vargas may be his toughest test yet. Cook recently shifted the race from "Lean R" to "Toss-up."

Bacon served our nation in uniform for 30 years, winning numerous honors and attaining the rank of Brigadier General in the Air Force. During his tenure as a congressman, he’s been a leader on the Armed Services committee and one of the most reliable and passionate pro-Israel voices in the Republican conference.

• In Pennsylvania’s 1st district – Bucks County, PA – Democrats have once again targeted Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick, who fought public-sector corruption and terrorism as an FBI agent before being elected to Congress in 2016, has quickly established a reputation as a common-sense conservative and a leader of the Problem Solvers Caucus. For pro-Israel advocates, Congressman Fitzpatrick is recognized as one of the most reliable allies in promoting the US-Israel alliance and standing up to Iran’s rogue regime.

In addition to protecting these incumbents in PVI EVEN seats, there are three open PVI EVEN seats currently held by Democrats where RJC is supporting strong efforts to flip them to red.

• Colorado’s 8th district was created after the Centennial State gained an additional seat in the once-a-decade reapportionment. It includes Denver’s northern suburbs and more rural Weld county to the north. The race pits Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer, a mainstream conservative who has served in state and local government, against left-wing Democratic state legislator Yadira Caraveo. The race has big stakes for pro-Israel advocates as J Street has made electing Caraveo one of their "priority" races. RJC strongly supports Kirkmeyer, a reliable pro-Israel ally and our leaders in the area have stepped up to help with her fundraising efforts.

• Facing off in New York’s 19th district, which stretches from the Finger Lakes to the east side of the Hudson River, are Republican Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro and Democrat Josh Riley, an attorney who worked for Democrats in Congress. During his tenure as County Executive, Molinaro has been a trailblazer, implementing innovative reforms in health care, social services and environmental protection that have won national recognition. Now he wants to bring his pragmatic, moderate conservative approach to bear on the problems facing our nation.

• Pennsylvania’s 17th district includes many of Pittsburgh’s suburbs and more rural areas to the west. We have an outstanding candidate, engineer Jeremy Shaffer, who has a great track record in private business creating solutions to traffic problems in the region, and working across the aisle in local government. Democrats are fully mobilized behind their candidate, left-wing law professor and veteran Chris DeLuzio. But for pro-Israel voters, the choice is clear: DeLuzio is one of J Street’s "priority" candidates while Shaffer is passionately pro-Israel.

The leading national Democratic and Republican committees and super-pacs have already spent more than $14 million in these three districts because they recognize how critical they are to the battle for the majority in the House of Representatives. If both parties are successful at driving up mid-term turnout and winning the districts where they have an advantage, the battle for the House could well come down to the districts where neither party has a clear advantage.

To victory,

Norm

Senator Norm Coleman
RJC National Chairman