Dead Heat in Biden Territory

The twenty-one races in the Cook Political Report’s "Democratic Toss up" column (link) are the building blocks of a GOP majority in the House of Representatives when the 118th Congress convenes in January 2023.

RJC PAC is supporting the Republican candidates in all of these races (save Alaska, where there are two Republicans running in the state’s unique “instant run-off” rules). We’ve had the chance to meet them and we are confident that all of them demonstrate great potential to make a positive difference for their districts and for our nation.

It’s a very good sign that Republicans are able to effectively contest these seats. Of the twenty-one districts, eighteen were Biden territory in the 2020 elections. Twelve of them Biden won by more than five percent. And it’s especially noteworthy that three of the Democrat-held toss-up seats preferred Biden by more than ten percent!

• In California’s 13th district, farmer and businessman John Duarte faces long-time Sacramento politician Adam Gray in in a race that will be determined by the extent to which the trend of increased support for the GOP from Hispanic voters continues this year. More than eight million dollars from national super PACs has poured into the Central Valley.

• Further north, Oregon’s 6th district is the result of the Beaver State gaining a congressional seat in last year’s once-a-decade reapportionment. The Democrats who dominate the state legislature there were confident that a district that Biden carried by thirteen percent would fall into their laps. But district Democrats appear to have overreached by picking a very liberal state legislator, opening the door for Republican Mike Erickson, a successful supply chain consultant.

• Perhaps the most improbable seat to fall into the most competitive category is Rhode Island’s 2nd district, which hasn’t elected a Republican since the early 1980s. Biden prevailed there by more than thirteen percent. It was a real recruiting coup when Republicans persuaded former Cranston Mayor Allan Fung to jump into the race. Fung carried the district in one of two runs for Governor and is overwhelmingly popular with those who know him best: He left office with an approval rating of more than eighty percent in Cranston, the state’s second-largest city.

These candidates know that if they win this year, they will be at the top of Democrats’ target lists for as long as the current district lines are in effect, but they say they’re prepared to defend themselves. I think they’re up to the challenge.

Now the only question is: Which of the supposedly safe Biden districts currently rated as "Lean Democratic" or "Likely Democratic" will move into the toss-up column by the time Cook announces their final ratings? I’m betting that column gets even longer before November 8th.

To victory,

Norm

Senator Norm Coleman
RJC National Chairman