U.S. House Update

It would take a miracle for Democrats to maintain their majority in the House of Representatives after next week’s elections. Currently, there are 220 Democrats and 212 Republicans. (Three seats are vacant because one member died in a tragic car accident and two others retired early.) Because Republicans are certain to pick up enough seats to erase Democrats’ slim margin in districts that are safe GOP territory post-redistricting, the real question is: How big will the GOP majority be?

The Cook Political Report’s forecast is that 212 seats are least leaning Republican and 188 are at least leaning Democrat, leaving 35 “Toss-up” seats where neither party has a clear advantage. 10 of those toss-ups are currently held by the GOP and 25 are currently held by Democrats. Historically, most toss-ups tend to break in the same direction, and all the evidence suggests that they’ll break in the Republican direction this year.

What evidence? Start with the so-called "generic ballot," a measure that gauges which party voters would prefer to see in the majority. Republicans currently lead by 3% in RealClearPolitics’ average of polls. That’s actually a bigger lead for Republicans than in the most recent "red wave" year, 2014, when the GOP led by 2.6% and won 247 seats, the biggest GOP House majority since 1928.

For those wary of polls, consider where the parties' congressional campaign committees and Super PACs are spending their money in the campaign's closing days. In 2020, President Biden carried the 40 districts with the most non-candidate spending by an average of 6.7%. And in the last week, national Democrats have started steering funds to districts Biden carried by 15 to 20%.

As Democrats have been forced to use their limited funds to protect endangered incumbents in medium to deep blue seats, they have been forced to give up most of their efforts to flip vulnerable Republican seats – and to cede open seats they currently hold to the GOP. These patterns are typical of a "wave" election in which one party wins nearly all the toss-up races – as well as a healthy number of the races where forecasters had given the other party the advantage.

Having had the opportunity to get to know many of the candidates whose arrival will usher in a GOP majority, I am excited to see what they’ll accomplish after they’re sworn in in January. By and large, these are established leaders in their communities, with strong appeal to conservative base voters and moderate swing voters. Many are veterans, women, or members of racial and ethnic minorities that have historically favored Democrats.

We are so close to the finish line and the prize we’ve coveted is within reach if we can finish the campaign strong. Please consider one last contribution to the RJC PAC or directly to one or more of our candidates through our PAC portal. We want to secure the biggest possible majority to make it easier to pass legislation and hold on to the House in future election cycles.

To victory,

Senator Norm Coleman
RJC National Chairman