U.S. Senate Update

Less than two weeks out from Election Day, Republicans have the clear momentum in the battle for the Senate. In the betting markets where investors can place wagers on election outcomes, shares in "Democrats control Senate in 2023" were trading higher than shares in "Republicans control" from early August until two weeks ago, but the markets’ confidence in GOP prospects has increased steadily since the lines crossed on October 17.

There’s been a similar shift in the closely watched FiveThirtyEight.com forecast that once deemed continued Democratic control a much likelier outcome than a GOP majority. The trend suggests those lines are likely to cross between now and Election Day.

With a Democrat in the White House, Republicans need 51 seats to regain the majority that was lost after the 2020 elections. Since the GOP already has 50 seats, all that’s needed is a net gain of one seat in November.

Because Senators are elected for six-year terms, roughly a third of the seats are up for grabs every two years. This year, voters will elect 35 Senators. (Because of a special election to replace a retiring Senator, Oklahoma voters will be voting to fill both of the state’s Senate seats.) Of those 35 seats, Republicans currently control 21, Democrats 14.

Democrats once hoped to flip a number of GOP-held seats from red to blue. Well-funded candidates emerged to challenge incumbents Ron Johnson and Marco Rubio in Wisconsin and Florida respectively, and to contest open GOP-held seats in Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. But while all these races remain competitive, Democrat hopes of flipping even one seat are quickly dimming.

Rubio has made a persuasive case that his opponent, Congresswoman Val Demings, has been an underachiever during her tenure in the House. Johnson has effectively disqualified Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes by educating voters about Barnes’ far-left record. Congressman Ted Budd in North Carolina and first-time candidate JD Vance in Ohio have made steady progress toward consolidating majority support in states where the median voter prefers to be represented by a conservative rather than a liberal. And in Pennsylvania, the famous doctor and television host Dr. Oz has surgically dismantled Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman with a particular focus on Fetterman’s record on crime.

And as Democrats’ offensive game has faltered, they are increasingly struggling to defend vulnerable incumbents in red-tinted Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona. In the Silver State, Adam Laxalt has opened up a small but consistent lead over Senator Catherine Cortez Masto. Herschel Walker has been holding his own against Senator Raphael Warnock in Georgia (where the election will go to a run-off if neither candidate wins 50 percent on November 8). And polls show a very tight race between newcomer Blake Masters and Senator Mark Kelly in Arizona.

The increasing likelihood of a "red wave" means we have a chance in bluer states as well. In New Hampshire, Senator Maggie Hassan remains vulnerable in her contest with retired General Don Bolduc. First-time candidates Joe O’Dea in Colorado and Tiffany Smiley in Washington are running great campaigns that have put Senators Michael Bennet and Patty Murray on their heels. National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Rick Scott thinks the wave might be big enough to lift Leora Levy, a Connecticut businesswoman and Republican activist who is Jewish, to a shocking upset victory over Senator Richard Blumenthal.

Here at RJC, we’ve been actively working to help achieve a GOP majority, aiding candidates through our political action committee, running our own grassroots efforts to ensure right-of-center Jewish voters turn out, and investing $1.5 million in an independent expenditure to run our own ads in the critical Pennsylvania race. We’ve also called on our members to support our candidates through our PAC portal. And you’ve come through in a big way.

Of course, we can’t let up now. So please consider what you might still be able to do to help the effort in the remaining days between now and November 8.

To victory,

Senator Norm Coleman
RJC National Chairman