Senate Overview
Republicans are on the cusp of winning back control of the U.S. Senate after four years as the minority party. It is not hyperbole to say: 2024 is the most consequential election of our lifetimes.
Republicans start with a base of 49 seats.
Democrats claim that the Ted Cruz seat in Texas and the Rick Scott seat in Florida are targets, but these are extreme long shots – as long as we help to defeat two far-left candidates. In Texas, Democrats have put up Colin Allred, handpicked by anti-Israel J Street, who voted to keep antisemite Ilhan Omar on the House Foreign Affairs Committee and supported the disastrous nuclear deal with the terrorist regime in Iran. In Florida, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and her socialist policies are totally out of step with everyday Floridians.
Republicans are thus assured of 50 seats in January, after they add the West Virginia seat currently held by Joe Manchin. Governor Jim Justice is on his way to an easy win for the GOP now that Manchin is retiring.
The majority-making seat is likely to be the Montana one currently held by the state’s senior Senator, Democrat Jon Tester. Having won three Senate terms in a very red state, Tester has a proven talent for camouflaging his down-the-line liberal record. But he’s never faced an opponent as formidable as Tim Sheehy, a combat veteran who built a phenomenally successful Montana business from the ground up.
The ad wars have been raging for months because Democrat Senate Leader Schumer’s operatives spent heavily trying to damage Sheehy during the GOP primary. Party-affiliated political action committees had already spent $44 million advertising to Montana voters by Labor Day.
This is only going to intensify during the remaining six-and-a-half weeks, but Tester and Schumer have clearly failed to turn voters against Sheehy. Polls suggest that Sheehy now has majority support and that we are likely to see a top-of-the-ticket outcome comparable to 2020, when Trump ran 16 points ahead of Biden in the Treasure State.
Building on those fifty-one seats won’t be easy, but I am betting on flipping at least one more when Bernie Moreno pulls off a victory in Ohio. Buckeye State voters are fed up with the failed liberal leadership exemplified by Kamala Harris and long-time incumbent Sherrod Brown. Brown stands out as a favorite of J Street, a politician who has never held a private sector job, and a vocal supporter of the terrible 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. Moreno is a serious conservative patriot with a stellar record of accomplishment in the private sector
Republicans have real opportunities in other Democrat-held seats – against incumbents in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada, and in open seats in Michigan and Arizona. All of these races are moving in the Republican direction, as illustrated most recently by a poll showing our Pennsylvania Senate candidate Dave McCormick running dead even with incumbent Bob Casey – something no previous Casey challenger ever achieved. I will look at some of these emerging races in closer detail in the next few weeks.
Don’t forget to support our candidates on our PAC portal. With only 45 days left before Election Day, NOW is the time to step up and secure the GOP firewall in the US Senate. We have no time to waste.
To victory,

Senator Norm Coleman RJC National Chairman
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