Competitive Races in MD, CA, and PA
In my previous dispatches, I took a look at the big picture of the battle for control of the House of Representatives and Senate. Now I’d like to take a closer look at some of the most competitive races.
Maryland Senate – open seat: Larry Hogan (R) vs. Angela Alsobrooks (D)
It’s an axiom of politics that it’s easier to “flip” a House or Senate seat from red to blue or blue to red when there is no incumbent running. And while this is true, most of the time incumbents who retire are replaced by a member of the same party.
When Maryland’s Democrat senior Senator Ben Cardin announced that he would not seek reelection, it seemed inevitable that another Democrat would succeed him. But then Larry Hogan jumped into the race.
Hogan served as Maryland’s Governor from 2015 to 2023. During his time in office, he managed to curb the worst excesses of the Democrat-dominated legislature in Annapolis and had success reining in out-of-control state taxes.
Hogan’s brand of effective and pragmatic conservative governance proved quite popular, and he easily won reelection in 2018, a tough year for Republicans in Maryland and most other places. At the end of his tenure, more than 80 percent of Marylanders approved of his job performance making him the most popular Governor in the country.
Because national Republicans have limited appeal in this very blue state, Hogan knows he can only win the race if he can convince independents and independent-minded Democrats that it’s better for Maryland to have a centrist Senator who refuses to march in lockstep with either party than a Democrat who toes the party line.
Hogan’s opponent, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, is trying to make the race a referendum on which party should control the Senate. As it becomes more and more apparent that the GOP will hold the Senate majority in 2025 and 2026 regardless of the Maryland outcome, Alsobrooks’s “51st vote for Mitch McConnell” scaremongering could fall flat.
Alsobrooks has a small lead in the RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight.com polling averages, but Democrats in DC and their most powerful interest group allies are pouring money into attack ads, because they know Hogan is a genuine threat to take away a Senate seat they feel entitled to.
One wild card is how Maryland’s sizable Jewish vote breaks in November. Hogan has faulted J Street-endorsee Alsobrooks for her failure to speak out strongly against rising antisemitism and her lack of robust support for Israel in its post-October 7 war of self-defense. Maryland Democrats have been able to count on strong Jewish support in the past, but Hogan’s outreach to the community is unprecedented.
In fact, Governor Hogan’s first major policy speech after announcing his candidacy was at a synagogue event hosted by the non-partisan Jewish Community Relations Council. In that speech, Hogan outlined his pro-Israel policies and highlighted the importance of standing strongly with Maryland’s Jewish residents.
California-45: Rep. Michelle Steel (R) vs. Derek Tran (D)
The 45th is one of the most ethnically diverse districts in the country; more than a third of its residents were born outside the U.S. That diversity is reflected in the biography of the district’s Congresswoman, Michelle Steel. Steel is a Korean-born immigrant who spent a significant part of her life in Japan, and thus speaks English as a third language. Now nearing the end of her second term in the House, Steel is a top target for Democrats because their presidential candidate carried this Orange County district 52-46 in 2020.
But Congresswoman Steel is not an easy target, having made a strong impression as one of the most energetic and effective Republican members to join the House in the last couple of cycles. In recognition of that promise, she was tapped last year to join the Ways and Means committee, a plum assignment for policy-oriented members because that panel is responsible for originating all legislation related to taxes, Social Security and Medicare.
Steel’s Democratic opponent Derek Tran is a veteran and trial lawyer who has been trying to avoid taking firm stands on tough issues - starting with the border crisis. Last week, the Orange County Register endorsed Steel and skewered Tran as not “ready for prime time.”
But despite their candidate’s limitations, national Democrats are pouring money into the district for attack ads and the race moved from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-up” this month in the assessment of the two leading political forecasting firms.
Our community has a lot at stake in this race. Steel has been a leader on supporting Israel and the fight against antisemitism. Earlier this year, the House passed her bill to make sanctions on Iran permanent, and her bill to address growing concerns about foreign funding of American universities was approved by the education committee and is expected to pass later this year.
As a member of that committee, Steel was one of the members who challenged university presidents for their failure to protect Jewish students from antisemitism. What a contrast with J Street-endorsed Tran; If he defeats our friend Congresswoman Steel, the Democrats almost certainly will have won the House and will shut down all efforts to hold universities accountable.
Pennsylvania-7: Rep. Susan Wild (D) vs. Ryan Mackenzie (R)
Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley is one of the most competitive areas in what may be the single most competitive state in the country. That means it’s the focus of intense attention in the presidential race and the critical U.S. Senate race between Democratic Sen. Bob Casey and Republican challenger Dave McCormick, in addition to being the site of one of the most critical House races, one that pits three-term Democrat Susan Wild against GOP State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie.
Wild saw her district become much more GOP-friendly in the most recent redistricting and in 2022, she prevailed by a slim 51-49 margin. Now she’s drawn a formidable challenger in Mackenzie, a 9th generation Lehigh Valley native who has waged successful campaigns in ‘purple’ territory.
Mackenzie has taken Wild to task for voting with President Biden 100 percent of the time. He’s also called out the J Street-endorsed incumbent for talking out of both sides of her mouth on matters of concern to Jewish voters, as illustrated most embarrassingly when the Washington Free Beacon obtained two letters she sent to constituents. One letter portrayed Wild as dedicated to supporting Israel’s self-defense and securing the release of Hamas’s hostages. The other – presumably targeted to anti-Israel advocates – said nothing about the hostages and detailed the Congresswoman’s efforts to push the Biden administration to be tougher on Israel.
Wild is Jewish and serves on the Foreign Affairs committee, but while other Jewish Democrats on the committee have endured protests at their homes because they’ve supported Republican pro-Israel measures opposed by the administration, Wild voted against bipartisan bills to guarantee the delivery of U.S. munitions to Israel, defund UNRWA, and sanction the International Criminal Court for its vendetta against Israel.
Like most GOP challengers, Mackenzie is behind in fundraising and is counting on support from Republicans outside his district to get his message out despite a deluge of Democrat attack ads. That’s why he was one of the first challengers RJC endorsed this cycle. Republicans probably need to flip this seat to keep the majority and definitely need to flip it to secure an effective majority.
To victory,

Senator Norm Coleman RJC National Chairman
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