In private conversations, top administration officials have signaled to Israel that they could support a plan more akin to counterterrorism operations than all-out war, four U.S. officials said. That, the administration officials argue, would minimize civilian casualties, decimate Hamas’ ranks and avoid scenes that have led to souring public opinion on Israel’s campaign and Biden’s handling of the war.

The privately conveyed stance adds more specificity to what the administration has hinted at in public.

For months, the Biden administration has pushed Israel to consider a military plan requiring specialized, more-precise troops to fight roughly 3,000 Hamas militants in Rafah — the same number that Hamas used to attack Israel on Oct. 7. They want to avoid Israeli forces turning the city to rubble and killing many Palestinians civilians. A large-scale campaign, Biden and his top aides have said publicly, would not be acceptable.

POLITICO first reported that Biden would consider conditioning some future military aid to Israel if there was a major campaign in Rafah, though national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that and other similar stories were “uninformed speculation.” Keeping the operation to a surgical size would potentially avoid that move and help stave off criticisms from congressional Democrats and other pro-Palestinian voices.

A third Israeli official, like others granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue, said there’s no question that at some point Israeli forces would launch some kind of operation.

“At the end of the day, we cannot win this war without defeating Hamas’ battalions in Rafah,” the person said.

However, citing military intelligence briefed to senior-level White House and administration officials, some key members of Biden’s team doubt Israel aims to conduct a major military operation in Gaza soon.

“They’d have to do some repositioning of forces, and that has not happened,” said a Defense Department official. “It’s not imminent.”

The official argued that lack of action is a sign that Israel is taking U.S. warnings into account. “Israel is going to do what Israel decides to do. It’s kind of like trying to predict the weather,” the DOD official continued. “But has the message sent been heard? Yes.”

All officials POLITICO spoke to stressed that Israel’s plans could change anytime, declining to say for certain that Israel would not eventually conduct a larger operation, perhaps due to changes in the country’s political environment.

The U.S. administration has also asserted in recent days that Biden’s statement about a “red line” was not definitive.

“The president didn’t make any declarations or pronouncements or announcements,” Sullivan told reporters Tuesday from the White House podium. “Our position is that a military operation in Rafah that does not protect civilians, that cuts off the main arteries of humanitarian assistance and that places enormous pressure on the Israel-Egypt border is not something that he can support.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also keeping up his pressure campaign. The Israeli leader spoke by video Tuesday to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a pro-Israel group in Washington, to defend his nation’s protection of civilians during the war. Israel’s friends, he said, “cannot say you support Israel’s goal of destroying Hamas and then oppose Israel when it takes the actions necessary to achieve that goal.”

But how Israel conducts a Rafah operation will impact the state of its alliance with the U.S.

At least one Senate Democrat, Maryland’s Chris Van Hollen, has considered blocking certain military sales to Israel depending on how the operation goes. The critic of Biden’s Israel policy called on the president to reprimand Israel if its military campaign in Rafah goes too far.

“When the president of the United States draws a red line, the president needs to ensure that there’s an enforcement mechanism. Otherwise, you look feckless,” he told a Wednesday audience at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank. “If Prime Minister Netanyahu just ignores the president of the United States after the president has said that that’s a red line, then it just undermines our effectiveness overall.”

But it’s possible a smaller, more precise military operation that safeguards civilians won’t trigger a response from Biden or congressional Democrats.

“It’s important to parse what a ‘major operation’ would entail. I don’t think that over time Israel will forgo going after the remaining Hamas troops and leadership underground in Rafah, but they may wait and conduct a more targeted, and perhaps less damaging, operation or series of smaller operations, given America’s objections,” said Natan Sachs, director of the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution.

Even those generally uncomfortable with Israel’s methods still say they want to see Hamas militarily defeated in Gaza, but not at the expense of more innocent people dead.

Biden, Sullivan told White House reporters, is focused on “the protection of civilians and about Israel being able to sustain a campaign in a way that ultimately leads to an outcome in which the people of Israel are secure, Hamas is crushed, and there is a long-term solution to stability and peace in the region.”

The U.S. continues to negotiate a six-week cease-fire with Israel, Hamas, Qatar and Egypt, which would also see the release of prisoners and hostages. In the meantime, the Biden administration has pushed on Israel to allow more humanitarian assistance into Gaza. Aid trucks are now entering the northern part of the enclave via an experimental land route, bringing food, water, medicine and other materials to people in need.

Biden ordered the U.S. military to build a temporary port for Gaza without setting foot on the territory’s land. Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, a Pentagon spokesperson, told reporters last week that there was a “risk” of Hamas shooting at American troops setting up the pier.

“But if Hamas truly does care about the Palestinian people, then again, one would hope that this international mission to deliver aid to people who need it would be able to happen unhindered,” he said.