U.S. House 2022 Summer Status Report
Democratic control of the House of Representatives is hanging by a thread. The current make-up of the chamber is 220 Democrats and 211 Republicans. But three of the four current vacancies are in Republican seats which will be filled after special elections in August. Republicans are also favored to flip the fourth vacant seat from blue to red next month in New York’s 19th district. That would narrow the Democrat majority to 220-215.
In November, the GOP is certain to pick up two seats in Georgia and Tennessee and heavily favored to flip one in Arizona and two more in Florida – all based on changes made in the redistricting process. That alone would be enough for a Republican majority assuming the GOP can protect the seats it currently holds.
To be sure, House Republicans, led by Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and National Republican Campaign Committee Chairman Tom Emmer, are aiming not for a bare majority but a robust one. They’ve targeted dozens of Democrat-held seats, and with President Biden’s popularity in free-fall, the list of opportunities keeps growing.
The Cook Political Report currently classifies 204 seats as certain or likely to go Republican and 175 certain or likely to go Democrat – leaving 56 that are currently competitive. Of these, one pits a Republican incumbent against a Democrat incumbent, 19 are open seats with no incumbent, 8 involve Republican incumbents facing Democrat challengers, and 28 pit Democrat incumbents against Republican challengers.
Most of the endangered Democrat incumbents lead their Republican opponents in the fundraising race. Incumbents always have an advantage and most of the GOP challengers had to spend to win competitive primaries. But Republicans are quickly closing the gap in most of these races and will benefit from a big edge in spending by outside groups such as the Congressional Leadership Fund that are outraising their Democrat counterparts.
Help us close the fundraising gap – 100% of your contribution to the RJC PAC goes directly to Republican incumbents and candidates in the most competitive races.
Another key factor that has House Republican strategists encouraged is the quality of the GOP challengers. 30 states have held primaries so far and in nearly every key race, GOP voters have chosen impressive, pragmatic candidates who are a good fit for their district. Many are veterans, women or members of racial and ethnic minorities that have historically favored Democrats.
RJC PAC has already endorsed 18 House challengers and in the coming weeks we’ll be endorsing many more. And to ensure victory for these candidates and the biggest possible GOP majority, we need our members to come through in a big way. With just over 100 days until election day, your support of the RJC PAC is critical so we can help our GOP friends on the frontlines in battleground districts across the country. Every dollar counts, so please add your support to the RJC PAC's efforts today!